Anthony M. Barrett

 

tony@tony-barrett.com

www.tony-barrett.com

 

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PH.D. DISSERTATION     

 

Barrett, A.M.  Mathematical Modeling and Decision Analysis for Terrorism Defense: Assessing Chlorine Truck Attack Consequence and Countermeasure Cost Effectiveness, Doctoral Dissertation, Carnegie Mellon University, May, 2009.  Corrigenda last updated November 2009. 

 

 

PUBLICATIONS    

 

Journal Articles (refereed)

Barrett, A.M., and S.D. Baum, “Mapping AI Catastrophe Pathways: Using Fault Tree and Influence Diagram Modeling for Long Term Artificial Intelligence Risk, Forecasting and Policy Analysis”, Journal of Experimental & Theoretical Artificial Intelligence, 2017. Vol. 29, No. 2, pp. 397-414.

Barrett, A. M., S. D. Baum and K. R. Hostetler, “Analyzing and Reducing the Risks of Inadvertent Nuclear War Between the United States and Russia”, Science and Global Security, 2013. Vol. 21, No. 2, pp. 106-133.

Barrett, A.M. and E.A. Casman, “Should Cities Invest in Sheltering-in-Place Measures against Chlorine Truck Attacks by Terrorists?”, Risk Analysis, 2013. Vol. 33, No. 5, pp. 931-944.

Giesecke, J. A., W. J. Burns, A. Barrett, E. Bayrak, A. Rose, P. Slovic, M. Suher, “Assessment of the Regional Economic Impacts of Catastrophic Events: CGE analysis of resource loss and behavioral effects of an RDD attack scenario”, Risk Analysis, 2012. Vol. 32, No. 4, pp. 583-600.

Barrett, A.M. and P.J. Adams, “Chlorine Truck Attack Consequences and Mitigation”, Risk Analysis, 2011. Vol. 31, No. 8, pp. 1243-1259.

Barrett, A.M., “Cost Effectiveness of On-site Chlorine Generation for Chlorine Truck Attack Prevention”, Decision Analysis, 2010, Vol. 7, No. 4, pp. 366-377.

Ausubel, J.H., I.K. Wernick, A.M. Barrett, and P.E. Waggoner, “Industrial ecology for leverage to let loose less cadmium”, Progress in Industrial Ecology, 2006, Vol. 3, No. 6, pp. 522-537.

 

Conference Papers

Barrett, A.M., “Modeling and Analysis for Robust Risk Management: PortSec Resource Allocation Decision Support Framework”, in Workshop on Grand Challenges in Modeling, Simulation and Analysis for Homeland Security (MSAHS-2010), March 17-18, 2010, Washington, DC.

Orosz, M.D., C. Southwell, A.M. Barrett, N.O. Bakir, J. Chen, and I. Maya. (2009, September).  PortSec: Port Security Risk Management and Resource Allocation System”, in 12th IFAC Symposium on Control in Transportation Systems, September 2-4, 2009, Redondo Beach, California, pp. 135-142.

Giesecke, J.A., W.J. Burns, A. Barrett, E. Bayrak, A. Rose, and M. Suher, “Regional Economic Damage from Catastrophic Events: Evaluation of Resource Loss and Fear Effects of a RDD Attack Scenario”, in 56th Annual North American Meetings of the Regional Science Association International, November 18-21, 2009, San Francisco, California. 

 

Accepted for Publication

Barrett, A.M. “Value of GCR Information: Cost Effectiveness-Based Approach for Global Catastrophic Risk (GCR) Reduction”, accepted for publication in Decision Analysis.  [Brief summary, full preprint]

Barrett, A.M., and S.D. Baum.  “Risk Analysis and Risk Management for the Artificial Superintelligence Research and Development Process”, in The Technological Singularity: Managing the Journey, Springer.

Baum, S.D., and A.M. Barrett. “The Most Extreme Risks: Global Catastrophes”, in Extreme Events, edited by Vicki Bier, Farnham, UK: Gower.

 

In Preparation / Working Papers

Barrett, A.M., “Towards Consensus on Global Catastrophic Risk Reduction Objectives”, for submission to Futures.

 

Online Reports

Barrett, A.M. (2016, June). “False Alarms, True Dangers?  Current and Future Risks of Inadvertent U.S. – Russian Nuclear War”, RAND Corporation report. http://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE191.html

Barrett, A.M. (2014, January).  “Analyzing Current and Future Catastrophic Risks from Emerging-Threat Technologies”.  Research synopsis for CREATE Homeland Security Center, University of Southern California.  http://research.create.usc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1062&context=current_synopses

 

Unpublished Reports

Barrett, A.M.  (2014, July).  “Final Report on System for Evaluation of Emerging-Technology Risks – Synthetic Biology (SEER-SynBio); Volume 1: Methodology, Volume 2: Synbio Scenarios and Indicators”.  Prepared for CREATE Homeland Security Center, University of Southern California and US Department of Homeland Security.

CREATE.  (2011, June).  “Adaptive Adversary Modeling for Terrorism Risk Analysis: Final Report”.  Prepared by National Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE) team for US Department of Homeland Security.

Barrett, A.M., H. Rosoff, A.G. Newton, and I. Maya.  (2010, June).  “RDD Attack Risk Analysis and Countermeasure Investment Decision Analysis”.  Prepared for US Federal Emergency Management Agency.

Barrett, A.M, N.O. Bakir, and I. Maya.  (2009, August).  “Evaluation of US Coast Guard Terrorism Risk and Decision Analysis Models and Processes for Port, Waterways and Coastal Security”.  Homeland Security Center for Risk & Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA.

Vugrin, E.D., D.E. Warren, M.A. Ehlen, A.Z. Rose, and A.M. Barrett.  (2009, August).  “Chemical Supply Chain and Resilience Project: A Resilience Definition for Use in Economic and Critical Infrastructure Resilience Analysis”.  Prepared for Science and Technology Directorate of US Department of Homeland Security.

 

 

CONFERENCE PRESENTATIONS        

 

Barrett, A.M. and S.D. Baum (2015, December).  Analyzing Long Term Risks of Artificial Intelligence Catastrophe.  Presented at the Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting, Arlington, Virginia.

Barrett, A.M. (2014, December).  Analyzing Current and Future Catastrophic Risks from Emerging-Threat Technologies.  Presented at the Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting, Denver, Colorado.

Barrett, A.M. (2014, June).  Value of GCR Information: Cost Effective Reduction of Global Catastrophic Risks (GCRs).  Presented at the Advances in Decision Analysis Conference, Washington, DC.

Barrett, A.M. (2013, December).  Analyzing and Reducing the Risks of Inadvertent Nuclear War Between the United States and Russia.  Presented at the Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting, Baltimore, Maryland.

Barrett, A.M. (2012, October).  Analyzing and Reducing the Risks of Inadvertent Nuclear War Between the United States and Russia.  Presented at the Program on Nuclear Issues Fall Conference, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, DC.

Barrett, A.M. (2011, December).  Adversary Modeling and Defensive Decision Analysis for Robust Terrorism Risk Management.  Presented at the Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting, Charleston, South Carolina.

Barrett, A.M. and S.D. Baum (2011, December).  Towards Consensus on Global Catastrophic Risk Reduction Objectives.  Presented at the Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting, Charleston, South Carolina.

Barrett, A. M., V. Bier, T. Jamshidi, C. Wang, S. Hora, R. John, I. Maya and H. Rosoff (2011, September).  Adaptive Adversary Modeling for Terrorism Risk Management. Presented at the Fifth Annual Conference of the Security Analysis and Risk Management Association, Arlington, Virginia.

Barrett, A.M. (2010, March).  Modeling and Analysis for Robust Risk Management: PortSec Resource Allocation Decision Support Framework.  Presented at the Workshop on Grand Challenges in Modeling, Simulation and Analysis for Homeland Security, 2010, Washington, DC.

Barrett, A.M. (2009, December).  Port Security (PortSec) Risk Analysis and Resource Allocation I: Methodology.  Poster presented at the Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting, Baltimore, Maryland.

Orosz, M.D., C. Southwell, A.M. Barrett, N.O. Bakir, J. Chen, and I. Maya. (2009, September).  PortSec: Port Security Risk Management and Resource Allocation System.  Presented at the 12th IFAC Symposium on Control in Transportation Systems, Redondo Beach, California.

Barrett, A.M. (2009, April).  Assessing Chlorine Truck Attack Consequence and Countermeasure Cost Effectiveness. Presented at the Los Alamos National Laboratory Risk Symposium, Santa Fe, New Mexico.  Awarded Risk Symposium travel funding.

Barrett, A.M. (2007, December).  Cost-Effectiveness of Mitigation Against Terrorist Release of a Toxic Industrial Chemical.  Presented at the Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting, San Antonio, Texas.

Barrett, A.M. (2007, November).  Cost Effectiveness of Mitigation Against a Terrorist Release of a Toxic Industrial Chemical.  Presented at the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences Annual Meeting, Seattle, Washington.

Barrett, A.M. (2006, December).  Estimated Acute Health Consequences and Effectiveness of Consequence Reduction Strategies for Terrorist-Caused Urban Releases of a Toxic Industrial Chemical.  Presented at the Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting, Baltimore, Maryland.

Barrett, A.M. (2006, November).  Estimated Consequences and Mitigation Effectiveness for Release of a Toxic Industrial Chemical.  Presented at the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences Annual Meeting, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

Barrett, A.M. (2005, December).  Terrorist-Caused Release of Industrial Toxic-Inhalation-Hazard Chemicals: Lessons and Limits of Risk Assessment.  Presented at the Society for Risk Analysis Annual Meeting, Orlando, Florida.